SOCIAL RISK AND VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF HAZARDOUS HYDROLOGICAL PHENOMENA IN RUSSIA

Stepan Zemtsov, Vyacheslav Baburin, Klaus Koltermann, Inna Krylenko, Natalia Yumina, Vladimir Litvinov

Full text: http://dx.doi.org/10.15356/2071-9388_04v07_2014_07

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Abstract

Methods and results of social vulnerability and risk assessment are presented in the article. It is explored if modified methodology of the United Nations University (World risk index) can be used on different scale levels: regional, municipal and settlement. It was estimated that, despite the low value of the World risk index for Russia, southern coastal and mountain regions have high values of the risk index for hydrological phenomena because of higher frequency of the hazardous events, higher population density, and high social vulnerability. The Krasnodar region (in the southwestern part of Russia) was chosen for a detailed analysis. A municipal risk index was developed, and municipal districts in the Kuban river mouth were identified as territories with the highest risk. For verification of the index results, the percentage of vulnerable people was estimated based on opinion polls. The results can be used in further risk calculation for other hazardous phenomena.

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